Tuesday, August 30, 2005

:  Patsies No Longer

So, I’ve been trying to work through a case of writer’s block.  I’ve written the beginnings of four articles during the past two weeks, but couldn’t finish any of them because they were neither clever nor interesting.  But since the baseball season is approaching September, where legends and call-ups are made, I am determined to moisten a dry time.

This baseball season is the most interesting in recent memory.  Yes, there are 16 teams within five games of the playoffs, but we’ve seen similar numbers before.  It’s the other 14 teams that are different this season.  In times past, I would look at the schedule of the Red Sox and their competitors and check off opportunities to gain or lose ground based on the opponents.

Not so this season.  All but two of the teams that enter Tuesday at least six games outside the playoff chase have defeated a contending club in a series.  (The only exceptions are the Mariners and Rangers, who both defeated the marginally-contending Twins.)  The biggest haters have been TampaBay, Milwaukee and Colorado, who each have taken three series against contending teams.  The Royals had lost 18 straight before winning consecutive series at Oakland and at home against Boston.

There are two obvious reasons why this is happening.

The first reason for the revenge of the non-contender is that the top teams are just not as good.  Last year’s league championship series teams (Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, Astros) would each be the best team in baseball today.  Those four teams are still good this season, but flawed.

The Red Sox bullpen is the worst in the American League statistically.  They have had injuries to starters Curt Schilling, David Wells and Wade Miller along with former closer Keith Foulke.  It was an apparently-healthy Schilling who lost the deciding series to the suddenly-pesky Royals last Thursday.  The Red Sox have taken the division lead and held it by pounding teams into submission.  That can’t change.  Boston doesn’t have the pitching it did in 2004, when they once went four times through the rotation without a starter throwing fewer than six innings.  The lack of consistent starting has prevented the Red Sox from extended success and may prevent them from winning their first division title since 1995.

The Yankees are showing that $200 million can cover up a lot of faults. New York, like its rivals, has pounded on teams, often waiting until the late innings to do the most damage.  They have recently gotten better starting pitching, with Shawn Chacon, Al Leiter and Jaret Wright contributing.  Still, a thin, overworked bullpen when combined with shaky starting pitching means the Yankees will depend on a homer-happy offense to get them into and through October.

The Cardinals would be better today than a year ago if not for injuries.  Reggie Sanders, Larry Walker and Scott Rolen are the big names who have gone down for the Cards this season.  Rolen will not return and Sanders is questionable for the remainder of the season.  St. Louis continues to win because of good pitching from starters and relievers along with playing smart brand of baseball.  The injuries, however, have made them eminently vulnerable in the post-season.

The Astros have pitched better this year, but the offense has come up short, as Roger Clemens’ win-loss record would indicate.  The losses of Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent and significant injuries to Lance Berkman and Jeff Bagwell have gutted Houston’s lineup.  The Astros sit a game and a half out of the wild card race and may not have the sticks to get back on top.

These teams, along with the other 12 or so contenders, are the best of a mediocre group, vulnerable to attack by the jilted also-rans.

The second obvious reason is that the bad teams are better.  But why?  Why is TampaBay suddenly a feared team—sweepers of Anaheim and Cleveland in recent weeks?  Not trading veterans like Aubrey Huff and Danys Baez (see “Ray of Light” column from August 8), combined with the emergence of young players like Chad Orvella, Jonny Gomes and Doug Waechter, has given Tampa the right combination for a winning second half.  The Rays epitomize the theme of the winning losers:  young players—Brad Eldred and Zach Duke in Pittsburgh, Richie Weeks and Brady Clark in Milwaukee, and others.

Another reason why the lesser teams are acting greater is the lack of movement at the trading deadline.  Non-contenders held onto veterans much more than usual.  They didn’t get worse, nor did they improve competitors who already had better records.  Along with Huff and Baez, Ken Griffey, Mike Sweeney, Jason Schmidt, Todd Helton and LyleOverbay all stayed put.

What’s going to happen in the next month?  More than ever, it’s impossible to say.  While I might see the Red Sox remaining games with the Orioles and Devil Rays as a good thing, those teams may be as hard to handle as the Yankees or Angels.  Of course, the Red Sox went out last night and pounded on Devil Ray pitching and will look to do so over the next three days.  Meanwhile the Yankees are out in Seattle playing a Mariners team that has some scary pieces—read, Felix Hernandez.

Similar scenarios are taking place as teams meet throughout major league baseball, but this trend may come to an end as the calendar turns.  Monday night, in the six games involving one contender and one non-contender, the contenders went 5-1.  The best teams play better down the stretch and those contending teams that can’t knock off the spoilers will not be contending for long.

Here’s my one prediction for the rest of the season:  There are six playoff spots up for grabs (not including the AL Central and NL Central titles).  I predict that the five of the six teams that gain those spots will have a .700 winning percentage against the non-contenders. (The NL West champion probably won't.)   The teams that continue to lose series to the Devil Rays and Rockies will be drinking their beverage of choice while they watch other teams play in October.

Note:  Go Sox!!